[nathan61]

Hi all,

It seems every live gig on earth has been cancelled for the foreseeable future. What are your backup plans? What does the future of being a professional musician hold?

Even many music teachers are suffering, as lessons are cancelled.

 

[milandro]

I am not a pro but I do play, occasionally, for a paid gig.

One of the things that is going to affect things in the long term is the fact that it is near to impossible to reopen under safe circumstances the rehearsal studios.

My band has contacted me for a gig in October, thinking that is it may be safe by then, well, I don’t see how it will ever be possible to sanitize a small studio with hundreds of surfaces and with no windows let alone the fact that as a woodwind player you cannot use a mask.

And even if we could, the gig was a party, will we be able to have gatherings by then?

The so called Herd Immunity isn’t working, only a small percentage of the public has been infected and the immunity may even be a short term one ( there are apparently cases of re-infection) if that is the case ( that may even have a meaning for the vaccine which would be, if that is true, of a limited efficacy) we will have to reconsider every single aspect of a community living.

Teaching is still possible on line and probably will be the new normal but I fear the worst for live music.

 

[nathan61]

I didn't even think about the problem of rehearsal space.

I had a few gigs cancelled, including one at a festival that I really wanted to play. Sad for me, but I dont depend on gig money to pay the rent. This social distancing is also problematic for teaching. For example my children have an expensive voice and piano teacher, and it is just not worthwhile doing lessons on the internet. You really want to be in the physical presence of another human, and not staring at a screen during a lesson.

 

[milandro]

well, it will be possible at some stage to have people around, albeit with precautions.

In the NL we are (to date, tonight maybe things will change) limited to 3 people in any given space and there is no compulsion to wear a mask , the only limitation (at least officially) is a safe distance of 1,5 m ( funny that this changes the world around from 180cm to 200cm) , but of course this is different when you have someone singing or playing in a closed space.

But I would not worry so much of having a person, with mask and gloves, coming to your place to give them lessons but I would worry a lot more to have your kinds going to a place where several people have been the same day, then they come home, spread around the virus which they may have acquired outside ( even if they aren’t sick themselves) and then repeating this operation several times in a month.It increases the chance of infection exponentially.

Again, regardless of how many people have died now, even when this will stop the virus will still be out there.

The only thing that will stop the virus is an immunity dam ( whether natural or through immunization) but this has not materialized yet.

So, if this, as every person in this field dreads, will get chronic and cyclical , the behavior associated to the “ being together” will have to change in a radical way, unless we have a vaccine that works, but if, as it is probable, this virus would mutate creating strains very different from this one (which may affect other parts of the body , we don’t know) and come back in a form so different that needs a different vaccine, much like influenza does but with the higher mortality which we have seen.

I don’t think that anyone has such a telescopic crystal ball which extends that much in time to know what this is going to be like, but believe me ( not that I really know) the implications are far and wider than most have thought.

 

[Sigmund451]

In addition to the safety measures there are economic considerations. It is possible that some places that closed will not again open. If they donthey may not have funds to pay musicians. Few economists agree with various politicians who feel there will be a rapid bounceback from a serious recession and state of unemployment.

Imdont have a dog in the fight but I do think its a concern

 

[milandro]

the assumption of a “ bounce back” (whether social or economic) are based on a magic switch which isn’t there ( methinks).

There will not be message saying “ The virus has ended go in peace (and sin no more)” so that we can all count the victims (among which there will be also the people who no longer have a business because they couldn’t endure the stop) and survivors like after the end of a war.

This is different.

Today in some countries ( not yet the NL) some activities seem to resume, among others, hairdressers, nail studios and massage parlors seem to be authorized to work.


Looks crazy to me but we shall see.


How to do that at a safe distance looks at least complicate if not impossible. I try to stay as much possible as I can away from people I haven’t seen my son and daughter in law in a very long time and I miss them. Yesterday I went to see a friend who has lent me a mouthpiece similar to mine ( I have sent that to repair in France to Brancher). We had a brief conversation downstairs where he lives at a safe distance. I can’t say that I felt very safe.

I have no desire to buy anything that isn’t strictly necessary to my well being or survival.

I wouldn’t feel comfortable to go to a concert or to use public places or transportation. Even walking in the street makes me feel uneasy, although I know people keep on going to the market.

The only activity that I have engaged was buying plants for the garden but it was now or never or we have no garden to speak of. I have bought the usual courgettes ( zucchini), aubergines ( eggplant) and tomatoes which I hope are going to feed us during the summer.

The irony in this is joke that I made and that was that the virus ( in dutch “ is een kwestie van lange adem” ) is a matter of holding a deep breath... very much deeper than one thinks.

This will change things and the new normal will look very different from the old normal.

 

[zapatista]

I agree with Andre' on a macroeconomic level. Even if tomorrow (later today ) there was a vaccine that effectively wiped out the possible continued spread/recurrence of COVID19, resumption of 'normal' economic activities will take awhile...a long while. The longer this goes on, the longer it will take for things to pick up. Most discretionary activities will be secondary (including gigs) and will take the longest to come back en masse/regular frequency.

A good analogue would be the accordion that is easily compressible (rapid change in reaction to the spread of COVID19) inward but takes much longer to spread out to full length. Hopefully I'm wrong.

 

[Sigmund451]

I hope I am wrong too. However in my limited experience I have noticed that when many people hope theynare wrong about a subject, it turns out that they are usually right.

 

[1saxman]

Nothing will happen until the bars, theaters and restaurants open. I just got booked for a 10/31 gig at a place I've worked for many years with a particular bunch, and I have a handful of others that have not yet been cancelled from now to then. I expect it will be at least September before things open to any great extent.

 

[milandro]

if there is no vaccine any large event will be confronted with the impossibility to be held. Unless one lets in only the people which can show they have some immunity (which we know now it may not be permanent)

The oktoberfest has been cancelled in Munich. That is in a country that has been hit very much less than others.

 

[MLucky]

I don't think anybody knows right now what the world is going to look like in six months, so it's impossible to say what the outlook is for live music, just as it's impossible to say what the future holds for restaurants, hotels, sports, and many other businesses.

But if you just want to hear me gaze into a crystal ball and guess? Well, based on what's happened so far and what's happening now, it looks like the United States is going start reopening some states and businesses very soon, and then, like Singapore, we'll probably experience a surge in new cases, and then a new series of stay at home orders. And then that cycle will repeat, again and again, until a vaccine is developed, probably 12-18 months from now. So live music gigs of any significance are at least a year a way, would be my guess.

 

[MLucky]

double post deleted

 

[Grumps]

I can't imagine shutdowns like this ever happening again. People are rebelling and more will join them. Things will reopen whether condoned by governments or not.

 

[milandro]

that may very well be but there may be a cost .

WHO warns that " immunity" is very much less than expected. As long as there is no vaccine, any gathering is potentially dangerous.

https://www.theguardian.com/society...t-very-few-have-had-covid-19-without-symptoms

 

[Grumps]

that may very well be but there may be a cost .

It's the cost of prolonging the quantity of life over the quality; of which there was always going to be a reckoning.

 

[lesacks]

Here's another possible future - with the same qualifications as everyone else.

Don't hold your breath for a vaccine to magic it away. Not just because we're a long way from the finish line or there's little sign of people developing immunity; but this vaccine development will be more like a cross country run, while everyone is cheering on a sprint. And the end product will have side effects, which will hit the headlines as it's administered to tens of millions, generating a backlash etc.
Personally, I'd much rather a good therapy than a vaccine. Anyway...

Some, regions will become "covid free" - small outbreaks tackled by swat medical and detective/tracking teams. Maybe some tracking apps linked to health systems, travel etc. Every town should have one. In such places, bars and clubs open.
But traveling into such an area will be difficult. A register of "c-19 free" areas will develop with travel permits. But other areas will require quarantine time (I think this used to be true for cholera), making touring hard. Swings and roundabouts, more work for locals if you have the audiences.
Slowly it'll reverse so that most the world can be traveled with restrictions on some areas. It used to be like that for various"tropical" (poor country) diseases.

 

[milandro]

well, in the end one can only try to protect people, even if that is from themselves.

There is another strategy that is being experimented in certain countries and that is not doing anything carry on as normal.

It wouldn’t be my choice, if this turns out to be be your choice , good luck! I really and truly wish you all the best.

Oh yes, the anti vaccination people are known in statistics as the “ control group”.

 

[Grumps]

There is another strategy that is being experimented in certain countries and that is not doing anything carry on as normal.

Believe me, when all is said and done, they're going to check the math; and the true cost of saving 1-2% of your population already at risk. These shutdowns are not going to be the new normal.

 

[motteatoj]

I think aside from the many economic impacts and things already stated, there will be other irreversable long term impacts.
Stadiums, large venues may not open for 18+ months once a vaccine or herd immunity take place.
To that end, there may be many many acts we never see again.
Example: Paul McCartney is 78 this summer, say 80 by the time stadium shows start up again.
Will he still tour after the down time, will others that are older?
Will we lose some of them when otherwise we might have been able to see them in the next two years?
Culturally, a huge void.

On the smaller scale, clubs, restaurants, etc...how soon before owners or patrons feel safe around musicians blowing or singing all over them?
I think this is a much longer journey than folks think.

 

[JL]

I'll say it, "I hope I'm wrong" (but I'm pretty sure I'm right). Sadly, I don't see how any sort of live music venue, with a crowd of people in close proximity, can open anytime soon. And by not soon, I suspect that means not until after a vaccine has been developed. Even then of course we'll have the anti-science, "anti-vaxers" who won't take the vaccine (which is partly why there's still significant death rate from the flu), but at least those of us who want some protection can get the vaccine. At that point, we'll hopefully be able to get back to playing gigs. There may be a lag time due to venues that have closed permanently and new venues gearing up to open to take up the slack.

Like 1saxman, I have a handful of gigs still on the schedule over the summer, but I'm not expecting any of them to happen. And if the situation hasn't improved significantly, which I doubt, I won't be doing them in any case.

milandro, those hair salons, message parlors, and bowling alleys are opening up in Georgia (and maybe Tennessee as well), where their deluded governor evidently thinks there won't be a new surge in sickness and death, which their certainly will be if those sorts of businesses open. This thing is far from over.

I'm lucky in that I don't rely on the money I make on gigs (it wouldn't be enough anyway), but feel bad for those who do, and I'm really missing doing them. But we have to persevere, do what it takes to get through this without exacerbating it, and make the best of a bad situation.